how paying close attention to how iran responds and bear in mind that if iran does wish, in fact, to de—escalate or sort of have a less flamboyant response, they may still respond quietly, covertly or in the ways they might have in the past, you know, through proxies for example. and that would be just as concerning to the us in terms of the risk us interests, allied interests in the region and they would need to be aware of that response potentially as well. �* , , ., ., ., well. there's been a lot of talk recently _ well. there's been a lot of talk recently since, - well. there's been a lot ofj talk recently since, really, the beginning of the month for the beginning of the month for the potential of miscalculation on either side here, either israel or iran. there were reports from officials that seemed to indicate that israel may have miscalculated its strike which really started this whole string of events on a diplomatic compound in syria. israel did not see that is something that would be escalatory. clearly, iran saw

it differently. they then was talk about iran may be calculating its strike on iran is something that would be slow—moving, potentially a bit easierfor air slow—moving, potentially a bit easier for air defences to take down but, clearly, that might as well have been something that needed a response. talk to us about the dangers of how these things are calculated and how these countries go about sending signals with missiles and drones. it’s sending signals with missiles and drones.— and drones. it's something which i think, _ and drones. it's something which i think, which - and drones. it's somethingj which i think, which strikes western audiences in the us and uk and elsewhere, as unusual, the idea of limited conflict. we are used to the idea of fighting to victory, fighting to win or at least trying to do so so the idea of signalling to military force but these things are relatively common, especially between smaller or sort of medium adversaries like we have here. you will engage in smaller attacks and may deniable attacks and there may

be a set of rules of engagement that are unspoken, never codified, certainly, but nevertheless followed. that's what we've seen in the middle east. signals are sent through the scale of the attack, the timing of the attack and sometimes signals are sent explicitly through third parties about the intent behind attacks. i think what's dangerous now is because of the gaza conflict, because of the conflict on his upper perfect northern border between israel and has below, it's not clear those rules of engagement are holding, it seems as though they are hot in the process of changing —— hezbollah. we don't know how and that makes this especially a difficult time, with each side may be misunderstanding and misreading the other side and gives rise to the potential for regional conflict but does arise as a result of miscalculation. i want to see if we can bring up a live shot of isfahan in iran and we're getting these live images now and it's daytime and

a fairly tranquil and normal looking scene there, there seems to be some sort of traffic circle and you can see cars driving. obviouslyjust cars driving. obviously just one cars driving. obviouslyjust one view of the city but it doesn't seem to be an area right now that is experiencing an immediate attack or panic. of course, we will have to wait and see exactly how these details play out but it is alive look now within the country of iran, isfahan, where we believe there were israeli missiles, at least one result, striking the city about four hours outside of the capital city of tehran. it is alive look, you can see it's daytime and there are cars in the street —— a live. that's about all we can tell you at this time. we can show our life page with updates online, of course. bbc.com/news and we will bring you updates as we get them online from our correspondence in the region. you can see it

there, the updates throughout there, the updates throughout the night or daytime, as it is in iran as we continue to get more information on what appears to be an israeli missile strike hitting iran. michael singh isjoining us, michael singh is joining us, managing michael singh isjoining us, managing director at the washington institute. just to reset, if you don't mind, getting some of these details in. explosions being reported on the ground in iran, reports it is an israeli missile strike. if, indeed, we do have final confirmation from israel, which we do not have yet, what would that say to you tonight, hearing that news? i would that say to you tonight, hearing that news?— hearing that news? i think we were expecting, _ hearing that news? i think we were expecting, many - hearing that news? i think we were expecting, many of- hearing that news? i think we were expecting, many of us l hearing that news? i think we - were expecting, many of us were expecting from the israelis was they would retaliate against iran because we saw for the first time in modern history a direct iranian attack on israel. that retaliation would seek to deter iran from any

further such strikes on israel. but the israelis may be interested in also sending a signal that they were interested in de—escalation. they were not looking to expand or escalate the conflict. similar to the way iran itself probably sent some signals before and after the april 13 attack on israel that he too was interested in de—escalation. explicitly, actually, from iran. so the hope is that if this was in fact a limited retaliation against iran by israel, potentially with some retaliation against interests elsewhere, for example iraq and syria, it would leave room for iran to essentially say nothing significant has happened and therefore not to retaliate any further against israel and i would say so far— and it's early going — the indications are that's the case. are releasing these tranquil pictures of isfahan, suggesting this was an insignificant event, maybe only quad copter involved which may not be true.

denying holding an emergency meeting of the national security council, from what i've seen. so all indications are so far are a desire mutually for de—escalation but we will see if it holds. irate mutually for de-escalation but we will see if it holds.- we will see if it holds. we do know that — we will see if it holds. we do know that in _ we will see if it holds. we do know that in that _ we will see if it holds. we do know that in that city, - we will see if it holds. we do know that in that city, just i know that in that city, just about four hours outside of the capital of tehran, there are several different potential targets. there is a military base, there is some sort of nuclear facility there. just walk us through why this city might be a potential target for an israeli strike. you might be a potential target for an israeli strike.— an israeli strike. you said it. you have — an israeli strike. you said it. you have both _ an israeli strike. you said it. you have both military - an israeli strike. you said it. | you have both military sites, military targets, potentially, as well as nuclear and so, the concern is when you read that isfahan was targeted, would have been this was a broader israeli strike on nuclear facilities which almost surely then would trigger a much more significant conflict between iran and israel but what we may have instead is a strike on perhaps one of those military

sites inessa home which is meant to signal to iran by israel that they are capable of hitting those sites but chose not to do so at this point —— isfahan. not to do so at this point -- isfahan-— not to do so at this point -- isfahan. ., , ., ,, , isfahan. for those of you 'ust “oininu isfahan. for those of you 'ust joining i isfahan. for those of you 'ust joining us, this is i isfahan. for those of you just joining us, this is breaking i joining us, this is breaking news. to us officials told cbs news, our us partner, and israeli missile has hit iran. there was an explosion heard northwest of the iranian city of isfahan early friday morning, according to the country's semi—official farres newsagency. state media reporting three drawings destroyed by the country's air defence system —— fars news agency. it's about a four —hour drive s. of tehran and is home to a large air base, a major missile products complex and several nuclear sites, as we were just discussing. several nuclear sites, as we werejust discussing. plenty several nuclear sites, as we were just discussing. plenty of potential targets for an israeli counterstrike. iranians

that media reporting those nuclear sites there are" completely safe". according to reuters, if the sirens have soundedin reuters, if the sirens have sounded in northern israel. that's exciting the israeli military. of course, there's the potential be here though sirens very frequently in the region due to the presence of hezbollah. we don't know how belated though sirens are to what we are seeing —— belated. we can show you on a live map the commercialflight we can show you on a live map the commercial flight traffic. many flights have been paused over iran's major cities including isfahan, tehran, you can see, every few flights taking place in the region. the country's state media reporting that those flights have been suspended and we will continue to bring in more details and more reporting as we get it tonight. let's bring back michael singh. five days, really, after that major attack by iran on israel, in terms of

the timing, is there anything to read in there? a few days later? we know there are some meetings of the israeli war cabinet to try to calibrate a response. is this about the time we would have expected something to come from israel? i think it is. i something to come from israel? ithink it is. ithink something to come from israel? i think it is. i think the delay in the israeli response sort of shows you that they were not in a state of war. israel didn't feel as though it had to respond straightaway and clearly didn't feel as though further iranian attacks were coming. potentially, this delay is itself a bit of a de—escalatory signal. israel is making clear it feels it needs to respond to what iran did on april 13, to respond to what iran did on april13, big barrage of missiles and drones and cruise missiles and drones and cruise missiles but it doesn't necessarily feel urgent about it and so, maybe you could take that from the timing and, again, it would be one of several de—escalatory signals here. several de-escalatory signals here. �* several de-escalatory signals here. , ., here. i'm sure there are some worries from _ here. i'm sure there are some worries from people _ here. i'm sure there are some worries from people around i here. i'm sure there are some. worries from people around the world about the impact might be

of a broader conflict in the region. we have seen some of the economic signals coming out, futures markets are starting to dip a bit, the price of bitcoin going down. also hearing from an israeli finance ministry official that an snp long—term ratings cut came as a direct response to the iranian missile attack on israel —— s&p. also hearing what we believe to be a retaliatory strike on iran so what are the broader effects that we may see in the coming days of really an unstable situation right now in the region? i situation right now in the reuion? ~ , situation right now in the reuion? ~ ., _ region? i think is obviously auoin region? i think is obviously going to — region? i think is obviously going to be _ region? i think is obviously going to be a _ region? i think is obviously going to be a lot _ region? i think is obviously going to be a lot of- region? i think is obviously| going to be a lot of interest from people who follow the markets as to how this will play out. it's still very early going and so, i would expect we would see some uncertainty and caution and fear, even, as to whether these strikes were more significant, whether we will see iranian retaliation and so,

i would expect things to be a bit unsettled for a while, until it becomes clear that this sort of chapter of israel— iran conflict is closed. and i would expect, frankly, that fear to be reflected amongst countries of the region, but, frankly, don't want to see cruise missiles, drones flying over their airspace between israel and iran and would rather, again, this chapter be brought to a close. so until we are very clear what has happened and that this is now over, i think those jitters will persist. over, i think those 'itters will persist.* over, i think those 'itters will persist. over, ithink those 'itters will ersist. . ., . will persist. we are looking at some pictures _ will persist. we are looking at some pictures of _ will persist. we are looking at some pictures of the - will persist. we are looking at some pictures of the moment| some pictures of the moment that iran struck israel, we don't have any verified images at this point of what we believe to be the attack tonight but this of course was that barrage more than 300 drones and missiles that were fired from iranian soil on israel. that's what we believed to have really triggered a retaliatory response by israel. it was called unprecedented and

the first time that iran had attacked israel from iranian soil. so, that some of the background for what we might be seeing tonight. michael, just going back to the us here, politically, the president biden and for the white house and for the administration, how much appetite do you think there is for a broader conflict orfor israel opening up new fronts in this war? we know, we have been hearing from president biden time and time again, telling the israeli government make sure you show some restraint here. there seems to be very little appetite for much escalation. i would say zero appetite, actually. i think one of the us goals since the beginning of the gaza conflict has really been to prevent this very scenario, prevent the widening all the sort of regional escalation of the conflict because president biden doesn't want to see the us dragged into

another regional war and in fact i think very few americans would like to see the us dragged into a regional war and in fact, you can see a weakening of us support even for israel in the gaza conflict. there's been more calls for a ceasefire. more pressure to get the hostage deal done quickly. it may be, frankly, good for president biden, ultimately, that the us was quite helpful to israel in defending against the april 13 barrage of iranian missiles against israel but you heard what the white house said — take the win. i think they saw it as a win for israel and the us and would have liked to have left it at that. we us and would have liked to have left it at that.— left it at that. we have not et left it at that. we have not yet heard _ left it at that. we have not yet heard from _ left it at that. we have not yet heard from either- left it at that. we have not| yet heard from either side, really, directly. israel has not been commenting, we have reached out for comments to the pentagon and have not heard much there. we've heard from iran earlier and we want to play this for

you again, this is not to harp on anything exactly in terms of the content of it but it's relevant in terms of what we had earlier today before the strike from the iranian foreign minister. this was in new york at the united nations and this was exactly in terms of a warning about what might happen if israel were to take part in a retaliatory strike on iran. we can listen to the response now. translation: in we can listen to the response now. tuna/mom- we can listen to the response now. translation: in case of an use now. translation: in case of any use of— now. translation: in case of any use of force _ now. translation: in case of any use of force by _ now. translation: in case of any use of force by the - now. translation: in case of any use of force by the israeli. any use of force by the israeli regime and violating our sovereignty, the islamic republic of iran will not hesitate to assert its inherent rights to give a decisive and proper response to it to make the regime regret its actions. let's show you isfahan, we believe has been struck from

reporting by our partner, cbs news, live look at iran. it is very clear day there, you can see traffic, you can see cars driving around that traffic circle the, so in terms of this one of you we have a city where we believe there to have been a strike, that strike believed to have been taken at the airport, is not exactly in this shot but it does appear to be as if daily life is continuing somewhat normally from this one of yearly heart. that's a live look inside iran we have the reports tonight that an israeli missile has hit iran. i want to bring in aaron david miller who has been part of our coverage for the past several days in terms of what's been taking place between iran and israel. it's great to have you. i want to get your reaction to this new report that we are getting

other potential israeli missile strike on iran. it was inevitable and i don't think it was a surprise to the administration. the israelis probably briefed the white house earlier today. whether they set precisely what they would strike is unclear but i think they finished off perhaps what they wouldn't, they didn't want to manage a strike that would have civilian casualties, they seem not to want to hit a nuclear site. they seem not to want to hit a nuclearsite. isfahan they seem not to want to hit a nuclear site. isfahan has a very important research centre which is extremely important to the iranian nuclear programme but it is unclear what military target they did hit. i think without trivialising the moment because that is fraught when two adversaries who believe that they are involved in an existential struggle, somehow change the rules of the game in a rather dramatic way. but at the same time it is not clear to me yet, it may be in the

next 2a hours, whether or not this was signalling and messaging, although in a crisis mode, orwhether or messaging, although in a crisis mode, or whether or not we are on the verge of climbing up the as glittery latter to some of the middle east has never seen before. �* , . , before. it's a very thin line, isn't it? _ before. it's a very thin line, isn't it? we _ before. it's a very thin line, isn't it? we have _ before. it's a very thin line, isn't it? we have had - before. it's a very thin line, isn't it? we have had that l before. it's a very thin line, - isn't it? we have had that word miscalculation being tossed around in reports in the past couple of days from officials in israel, within iran, within the us. talk about that and the risks that there is in terms of when you are signalling through military action how difficult it can be to calibrate a message through a missile? right, of course it is difficult, there is another reality here. we are guessing and worst casing and maybe that's simply natural human tendency, but i mentioned earlier that we are in a sort of information bermuda

triangle. don't know what the israelis intended with respect to the character of their strike and we don't know, the iranians appear to be sort of ridiculing and trivialising the israeli attack. i think the running and media refer to it, i was told, as a series of drone strikes, so it may well be and it is certainly possible that messaging and signalling could easily escalate between two adversaries that do not trust one another, but i think you really have to be sober and as non— hysterical at this particular moment and i think, frankly, we will find out soon enough, the iranians have threatened to respond immediately and massively, to the israeli strike. will they

follow through on that? and evenif follow through on that? and even if the iranians decided to retaliate in some way, is that inevitably going to climb up the as glittery latter? the reality is, we just don't know. the last thing we need to do, it seems to me is predicting the absolute worst case —— escalatory latter. this conflict is now in the hands of israel and iran. there is very little a third party, whether the donations, the us, the brits or anyone else is going to be able to do to affect the calculations of these two players —— the donations. even if we get through this without something the middle east has never seen before, a major regional war, you still have problems that are unresolved. what about proxies, about the reality that iran has a ready a

nuclear weapon social state, so this relationship will hang over the middle east like some sort of sort of government for a long time to come. i guess the question the two parties will have to ask themselves right now is are they looking for a major confrontation now or has each side discharged the sort of minimum obligation of what they need to re—establish deterrence, protect national pride, without dramatically escalating this into something quite for foreboding?- quite for foreboding? michael sinuh is quite for foreboding? michael singh is with _ quite for foreboding? michael singh is with us _ quite for foreboding? michael singh is with us and - quite for foreboding? michael singh is with us and i - quite for foreboding? michael singh is with us and i want. quite for foreboding? michael singh is with us and i want to | singh is with us and i want to ask you of the comments by aaron. this conflict in the hands of the right and israel but there are other countries in the region, the us has been playing a very active role. are there other regional partners or allies that might be able to

come in and pulled down the temperature if that's needed? i think are in makes a good point that even— think are in makes a good point that even if tonight's strike ends — that even if tonight's strike ends up _ that even if tonight's strike ends up being the close of this chapter— ends up being the close of this chapter of conflict between israel — chapter of conflict between israel and iran, we shouldn't convert _ israel and iran, we shouldn't convert ourselves too much because _ convert ourselves too much because you still have the gaza conflict, — because you still have the gaza conflict, plenty of proxy conflict, plenty of proxy conflict between the us and israet— conflict between the us and israel on the one hand and iranten— israel on the one hand and iranian proxies on the other and — iranian proxies on the other and so _ iranian proxies on the other and so still a very dangerous situation _ and so still a very dangerous situation and i think though that— situation and i think though that ultimately there are not really — that ultimately there are not really other parties who are going — really other parties who are going to _ really other parties who are going to come in and save this. it be _ going to come in and save this. it be up—to—date in the matinee states, — it be up—to—date in the matinee states, up— it be up—to—date in the matinee states, up the biden administration to chart the diplomatic way forward out of these — diplomatic way forward out of these conflicts —— united states _ these conflicts —— united states. it looks as though their— states. it looks as though their hope is to broker something that does bring in the saudis, brings in the israelis. _ the saudis, brings in the israelis, includes a potential resolution to the palestinian issue — resolution to the palestinian issue but i think we can sort of consider that to be a bit of

a hail— of consider that to be a bit of a hail mary pass as we say in the united states. something which — the united states. something which is — the united states. something which is really at this stage of the _ which is really at this stage of the biden the first term going _ of the biden the first term going to be quite difficult to achieve _ going to be quite difficult to achieve and i think we will see conflict — achieve and i think we will see conflict lingering into the future _ conflict lingering into the future in the coming months. aaron— future in the coming months. aaron david miller, i won't ask you how that might affect that all the different issues you are imagining on israel's plate right now which is waging war in gaza, has an invasion of rafah that it says is imminent, where more than a million people are currently sheltering, it has a fairly active although not a massive right now conflict going on with hezbollah, exchanging rockets over that border to israel's north, is israel in danger of putting too many plates in the air that it may not be able to keep spinning? you know, we wouldn't be having this conversation, i am not arguing the israeli—palestinian conflict began on 7 october,

but we wouldn't have this conversation had hamas not decided, and part of their motive was in fact to encourage regional instability, it seems they could provoke hezbollah and even in iran at a major regional confrontation. that was that i check. i fear that one gaza and 2024, i think michael makes a good point that 2024 is going to be the year of gaza because right now it's already april. right now it looks to me like the israeli and hamas prospects represent exchange which was the administration's hope, that would de—escalate the military, surge humanitarian assistance and begin a process of moving toward a conclusion, but the reality is hamas right now has no urgency here and, frankly, there is no urgency on the part of the israeli government, certainly not the hostage families are pressing but i trade with hamas will meet an

asymmetrical release of a 700 900 prisoners, either been charged or convicted of killing israelis, so i think that you've got a strategic cul—de—sac and right now i see no way out. hamas will survive either as an insurgent force or as a key force in palestinian politics with the capacity to intimidate or co—opt. the israelis will continue to operate in gaza at a much reduced level because they won't be a palestinian governing structure to prevent another 7 october. so you've got to remark, at least two nonstate actors, one in lebanon, hezbollah, and one in gaza, hamas, which will keep posing certificate risks to israeli security and, frankly, right now i see no way out of

this. right now i think we have to figure out whether or not we are going to be able to escape the escalatory letter which the israeli strike has taken another notch upward. aaron david miller, _ another notch upward. aaron david miller, senior - another notch upward. aaron david miller, senior fellow i david miller, seniorfellow with the carnegie endowment for international peace, michael singh, managing directorat international peace, michael singh, managing director at the washington institute and we thank you both so much for your insights. we will have plenty more on the developing news right here on bbc news. stay tuned. hello, there. some beautiful rainbows spotted again on thursday, particularly across parts of scotland, such as here in aberdeenshire. and there will be more rainbows on friday with sunshine and showers still very much the theme of the day but lots more dry weather to come in the forecast as we head through the weekend and into the start of next week now with high pressure starting to edge in from the west, killing off some of those showers by the time we get to the end of the afternoon. it's a cloudy, mild start to the day across england and wales. it's a little brighter further

north across scotland and northern ireland. the focus of the showers gradually shifting further southwards as we head through the afternoon across the midlands, down through central southern england. now, there will be quite a brisk and a chilly northerly to northwesterly wind blowing, lightening again by the time we get to the end of the day. and quite a range of temperatures, too — just eight celsius in aberdeenshire with that northerly wind but 15 celsius across the south—west of england. now, as we head through friday night, the skies will clear and away from north sea—facing coasts, which stay rather cloudy and breezy, then we could again see a touch of frost with temperatures dropping back to low single figures, so another chilly start to the weekend. now, the weekend — a lot of dry weather. in fact, it is looking mostly dry. we'll see some rain across scotland and there will be quite a bit of cloud around at times, especially towards the east, and a bit of east—west split in terms of temperature. with that high pressure over us, we're drawing in quite a chilly north—easterly wind, so those north sea—facing coasts. so here, it is always going to feel cooler and there will be quite a lot of cloud around as well — the north sea really quite cold

at this time of year. so, west is best in terms of sunshine amounts and temperature, certainly. now, as we head through saturday, there's a warm front gradually easing its way across the far north of scotland. this will bring some cloud, some outbreaks of rain. further south, it is largely dry but cloudy, drizzly perhaps towards these north sea—facing coasts. best of the sunshine out towards the west — it will get to 14 or 15 celsius perhaps here. some of the cloud could break up a little further eastwards, too, and that's also true on sunday, but temperatures towards these eastern coastal areas will really struggle to get much past eight or nine degrees. compare that to further west where, in parts of northern ireland, we could get to 17 degrees perhaps. feeling warmer here.

live from london, this is bbc news. two us officials tell cbs news an israeli missile has struck iran. state television in iran has reported big explosions in the city of isfahan. these are live pictures from isfahan. iranian state tv says the city is safe. this is a live shot of tel aviv. iran's foreign minister warned of immediate response to any israeli attack.

a warm welcome to the programme. i'm at mark labelle. breaking news this hour: state television in iran has reported big explosions near an army base and airport in the central city of isfahan, activating local air defence systems. blasts have also been reported in the country's northwest. video online shows iranian defence missiles being fired into the air. commercial flights have been diverting around iranian airspace. iranian media reports say that nuclear installations near isfahan are "totally secure". explosions have also been reported in southern syria from missiles apparently targeting radar sites; and in the iraqi capital baghdad, and babil province to the south. the israeli military said it had no comment at present, but two us officials have told cbs news that an israeli missile has hit iran. the explosions came

after israel promised to respond to a drone and missile attack conducted