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tv   Bloomberg Markets Asia  Bloomberg  April 18, 2024 11:00pm-12:00am EDT

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confirm israel has struck targets inside western iran. brent rising above $90 a barrel in fears of a middle east as collation. treasuries gained with the dollar and gold as growing risk sends investors scrambling for haven assets. asian equities sliding. we have a great lineup of guests. barclays president, stephen dainton joins us in a few minutes plus we speak with the leading anti-consultant, for a ride and fresh on oil. markets in risk off mode. let's get a close look. >> we are seeing a wave of risk aversion gripping markets and this was a reaction we saw even despite initially the reports being unverified. it is clearly a case of investors selling first and asking questions later.
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traders not prepared for the sudden revival of middle east tensions. we already saw markets mostly in the red. and this was on the bad draw of the fed speakers coming in hawkish. we heard from the likes of tsmc lowering its outlook for the chip outlook. chips were already badly hit and then, as the nikkei opened 1% lower and the loss is accelerated as the reports about the explosions in iran. we are also seeing the msci asia-pacific pacific index gauge of stocks in the region hovering at the lowest level since early february. brent and u.s. crude futures rising, almost three dollars a barrel above the $90 handle. we are also watching out for the implied volatility. look at this chart. it will show you that the
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implied volatility on crude is surging. this suggests we could see more days like this, swings in the price action. this makes one wonder what this will mean for people that are watching the inflation front. i want to take you to what we are seeing on the safe havens. the usual suspects moving. the dollar, yen, swiss franc, gold and treasuries as well. we are seeing the yen move below the 154 level against the greenback. the swiss franc jumped against the u.s. dollar early in the session and this is worth noting because the swiss franc has been capped recently due to dollar strength. today's move indicates how the middle east tensions are perhaps a bigger mover compared to the fed that spirit >> classic haven play. tenure -- 10 year yields.
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the latest, u.s. officials confirming in the last few minutes that israel has struck targets in western iran after multiple reports from the iranian news agencies of explosions heard around the city of esfahan. what do we know at this stage, bill? bill: it is still the first hour here of these reports coming in. we have two u.s. officials confirming that israel launched a missile strike on western iran and we have seen multiple, unverified reports of explosions taking place around the region. there is some thought that these may be drones as well getting hit. we don't know. esfahan is a site where there is a response of annexed -- reports of an explosion. it is a city known to have a number of military bases.
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it is believed to be one of the cities that iran launched its april 13 attack on israel from so it would seem to be a natural target but in terms of what has actually been hit and if there are casualties, those details have not come in but we are just trying to find out this gopro of what appears to have taken place or is still taking place as we speak. haslinda: it has been decades long shadow war. the concern is that war is coming out into the open. what are the risks of that? what are people saying right now? bill: there had been a lot of pressure coming on the israeli prime minister after iran's barrage of drones and missiles last weekend. to have israel not really respond or not respond in forest. netanyahu and other top officials said they had to respond in some way. it is the nature of that
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response that people will be looking at carefully. there will be a big difference i think between striking or destroying a runway at a military base versus hitting a barracks full of troops or anything like that. it is too soon to know the extent and damage caused but those are the kinds of things i think people will be looking at to see if this in fact amounts to a significant as collation. tensions are already quite high given everything else going on in the region. and no one has an interest in seeing a broader war rake out between iran and -- break out between iran and israel. haslinda: for more on what this means for our oil markets, we will be loan -- joined later by fereidun fesharaki. let's get straight to a special guest joining us exclusively, stephen dainton. this is his first interview
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since taking his role in february. we heard from averill earlier about the haven play. what is the ultimate hedge against geopolitical risks in the middle east right now? stephen d.: thank you for having me. what you are seeing is undoubtedly a rapid move away from risk assets. risk assets this year have accrued substantially. even this morning with the elevated geopolitical risks in the middle east, there has been evidence over the course of the last 4-5 months has really come to the fore, where are investors moving? they are defaulting to safety. gold has been up over 20% over the course of the year and it has acted well. energy continues to be a place where clients are migrating
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capital to actively with significant velocity. and then you have to look at commodities. this is causing a massive break in supply chain concerns. i think you will see a continuation of that concern evolving over the course of the next 4-5 weeks as more details come out of what has actually happened today. in aggregate, i think you will see the flight to safety continue and a deflation of risk assets that we have seen since the start of the year. haslinda: how do you reflect that in your portfolio bearing in mind looking at treasuries and the way yields are headed and bearing in mind that tensions are likely to escalate from here? stephen d.: i think what you are seeing now is a move to geopolitical away from central-bank divergence. and that migrates from week to week. over the last six weeks you have seen a huge shift in where the fed is looking to move. they have had three prints of
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cpi that are difficult for the fed. and i think you know how this huge anticipation that started with seven cuts this year migrating possibly to one or two for the balance of the year. have the central bank in europe articulating a clear path to begin the reduction in interest rates in june. this central-bank divergence has been at the forefront of clients over the course of the last six weeks. if you look at how deal politics emerges and lessons in that framework, i think today's events have demonstrated a huge risk off awareness. and that risk off awareness has been underway for a number of weeks. you were talking earlier about volatility in energy. equity volatility is up 40% this year. equity markets have begun to anticipate given the last three months some elevated level of
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concern and that has been reflected again this morning. haslinda: and oil, some saying it could get to $100 a barrel. varying in mind what the imf said overnight, if we see an upside in oil prices inflation will be up 0.7 percent. how will that she the thinking of the fed? stephen d.: it is extremely important for the fed. energy prices are a major contributor. nothing impacts u.s. citizens more than the price of oil given the price of gas at the pump. i think that will be of major concern for the fed and the political system in the u.s. however, i go back to what you have seen over the course of the last two years with geopolitical events, events in ukraine, events this year and last year and the middle east, real concerns about supply chain. the near shoring of assets in the u.s. in particular, the
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french shoring has been a massive theme and i think you will continue to see this impact on supply chains that in particular -- supply chains in particular as well as the price of commodities. copper and aluminum up substantially this year and all within the context of a week chinese economy which is truly extraordinary. you are seeing not only political events come to bear but you are seeing this very significant change in supply chain and supply chain management being a material issue. haslinda: you talk about higher volatility even with equities. what are you advising clients to do? what are you hearing from clients? stephen d.: you saw a number of clients at the start of the year move very consciously into equity assets. you saw that through the lens of what is going on in japan and the japanese equity market rallied over 20% this year. you have seen a compression and
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the last four weeks. it was reflected in most major equity markets. if you look at what is going on in the u.s., the s&p traded up 10%. people are trying to find growth so they were becoming comfortable with the inflationary cycle coming down. if you look at what the fed's anticipated moves were, seven anticipated towards the end of last year, that all gave a huge amount of comfort in equity risks. you saw equity markets rally significantly at the start of the year appeared i thought they were extremely resilient. investors were desperately trying to find growth. i think that will continue to be a theme over the course of the next six months with the caveat that you not have these substantial events interrupting risk awareness. haslinda: and for barclays, how are you boosting r.o.e. when you are also downsizing as a lead organization? stephen d.: they laid out
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clearly a statement on february 20. the statement was to demonstrate a balanced level of business. we have a bank diversified among many assets. we are very diverse from a product perspective capable of transacting for clients across the entire asset class vector impure secondly, we are also very diverse from a geographic perspective. i am in asia this week and we have had more than 50 years of relevancy here in asia and a big business in india. we have a diverse portfolio of businesses within the i.b. and are very careful of providing solutions in risk awareness. haslinda: to touch on currencies, we have seen a full load of asian currencies on the back of the resilient usd.
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stephen d.: a strong u.s. dollar is difficult for a number of people. you have weak equity markets in china, you have weak employment markets in china and the last thing they want is a week currency. you have huge dollar strength, the default asset of safety and a fed that is looking like it is going to reduce raise in -- at a faster rate than previously anticipated. i think a strong dollar ultimately is problematic, very problematic for emerging markets. and until we get clarity through this geopolitical issue, i think the dollar will continue to remain strong. haslinda: there are expectations of intervention among several asian banks. still ahead this hour, fge shares. and we discussed india's
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haslinda: classic haven play. gold futures up .4%. 2407 is a level we are looking at. take a look at what we are looking at in terms of yields. u.s. bond yields fallen across the curve. 10 year yield down 10 basis points.
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let's get you to india. six weeks of national elections underway with one billion voters starting to cast their votes. i were editor is outside a polling station -- our editor is outside a polling station. >> good morning. this is the world's largest democratic electoral exercise taking place in the fifth largest and fastest growing economy in the world. it has not just domestic implications but international implications as well. it is a morning where i should remind you that india is among the few countries that have ties with both israel and iran. i am in one of the southern states in india that has so far resisted the prime minister's
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charm and that makes it a fierce battle that his party seeks to fight here over the course of the next six phases to come. it will finish voting today. the goal that the prime minister has is not just to win a third term but to win it with a super majority which is 400 seats of 543. we will know by june 4 if he has succeeded. haslinda: that is right. all eyes on india, a favored market that has had a stellar run prompting some to say the valuations are overextended but they are still pumping money into the market. >> that is right. it is an expensive upmarket undoubtedly but it is also a market that seems to transmit earnings growth in a more efficient fashion as jp morgan was saying. jp morgan to bloomberg said that a few days ago and it is also a
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market pricing in the growth story that we have been discussing now since last year when india was hosting the g20. the potential for india to come in many ways, replace china as the engine of growth for the world economy. it is a market pricing both of that in. it depends on if they are looking at the short end or the longer term of the market to determine. haslinda: that is right, money to be made right there. thank you for that. let's get to our guest, stephen dainton, barclays president and head of investment bank management. india is trading at 23 times forward earnings. when you take a look at eight percent, 9%, 10% growth potential, it is still a good opportunity to put in money. stephen d.: what you have seen clearly in the last 2-3 years is a significant migration of
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capital into india demonstrated by growth. barclays has been in india for 40 years. we have perhaps the most balanced bank outside of the u.k. in india across the private bank, investment bank, and corporate bank. i think what you have seen is true change in investors mindsets to find stability and growth. i think that is the migration from china towards india as foreign capital has, for the last 20 years, been fully invested in china and the growth story in china. i think with some of the geopolitical concerns we talked about previously, that capital is now migrating towards india. it does not mean it will migrate entirely, of course not. look at the scale of what china has. but undoubtedly, india has positioned itself as a my new factoring center, and -- as a
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manufacturing center and energy center with significant demographic and gdp growth prospects. haslinda: people say it is a buying opportunity. stephen d.: what you have seen investors do is through each election, this year on this planet we have more elections and we have ever had in the democratic world. i think you will see markets reacted changes in politics. capital fines stability and growth. and india has demonstrated over the course of the last 5-6 years that they can provide that stability for foreign capital to come and encourage growth and it has had a consistent growth profile over the last two years. haslinda: traders look at india in the context of china. china said today it wants capital market reform wanting to focus more on value as opposed to speculation which has driven the market so far.
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is that a game changer for you? stephen d.: central bangs, politicians have to be consistent. capital loves consistency. i think with some of the changes in china during the course of the last three years, change in political regulation around certain industries, capital has become concerned. changes in geopolitical events, capital has become concerned. in india, they are seeing all of the elements of an emerging market, growth opportunities that i touched on plus it is also growing its presence across the emerging market portfolio as a whole. i think india, given what it has done in the last five years, truly demonstrating the stability and an ability to grow will continue to accrue foreign capital. haslinda: when you look at asia as a whole, where do you see the biggest opportunities?
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some say it is japan's time. stephen d.: i think japan is interesting. you saw japan perform exceptionally well last year. a big change in the dynamic of the central bank. japan moves slowly but deliberately and it has duration. i think you will see risk capital find japanese assets new the next 2-5, 10 years. i think japan is interesting but in the mosaic of asia you have unbelievable growth opportunities in southeast asia. if i look at each economy, we see different levels but in indonesia and malaysia and right here in singapore, and the growth opportunities here in singapore and obviously, australia which continues to be a huge resource center for the planet. i think asia general continues to exhibit growth. if they can continue to exhibit stability, it will accrete
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foreign capital at a faster and faster rate. haslinda: and yet we are seeing emerging markets being underperforming. what will it take to change -- do you expect the change to come this year? stephen d.: when china falls, em shed rally. the dollar is an issue. dollar strength puts pressure on emerging markets. you have to see the dollar start to soften to bring that change in emerging market mentality. you also have to see liquidity and it is incumbent on the market participants to continue to provide liquidity into the markets. fundamentally, the emerging markets are growing at a faster clip than the emerged markets and in the next two years that will be critical for foreign capital and domestic capital. haslinda: looking at the banking sector as a whole, there is no secret that most banks have been
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cutting jobs. have we seen the worst? stephen d.: i think what you are seen as every industry goes through various cycles. they adapt their workforce for that cycle. a number of u.s. banks have reported this year. mostly they reported very credible results over the course of their reporting season. i think we will continue to see them focus on efficiency. in the course of the last year most of us have learned about ai but we have not understood the full opportunities and use cases of ai through the industry and industries. there are a number of elements coming to help the banking system and industry as a whole create greater efficiency. haslinda: one more question when it comes to barclays itself, job cuts? stephen d.: we go through a workforce planning process like every industry. it is dependent on the shape of
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the portfolio, it is dependent on the market environment and i think that most importantly, as was laid out in february, we are extremely focused on cost discipline within the organization. we have a large ambition to improve our profitability from 10% to 12% and that was laid out clearly in february. haslinda: great to have you with us, stephen dainton from barclays. the risk aversion is out across the board. look at the haven plays getting booted up on the back of resurgent risks in the middle east. the msci asia-pacific pacific index trading at session lows. the big losers in terms of benchmarks include that nikkei and the topix. and in the fx space, it is a strong dollar story putting pressure on asian currencies.
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the korean wan is down and the peso is down by .7%. the yen is getting a bid up and is traditionally a haven play. crude oil, wti crude up to .7% and it brings the question, what happens to the flight against -- the fight against inflation. the latest on energy markets as the u.s. confirms as really strikes on targets inside iran. that is next. keep it here with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ her uncle's unhappy. i'm sensing an underlying issue. it's t-mobile. it started when we tried to get him under a new plan. but they they unexpectedly unraveled their “price lock” guarantee. which has made him, a bit... unruly. you called yourself the “un-carrier”. you sing about “price lock” on those commercials. “the price lock, the price lock...” so, if you could change the price, change the name! it's not a lock, i know a lock. so how can we undo the damage? we could all unsubscribe and switch to xfinity.
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and our success stories are real. why not give it a try? >> let's get to admiral hung for the latest risk off. >> there is a lot of safe haven
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demand, a classic example of how geopolitics can throw a wrench in the work of financial markets. safe havens looking at the dollar, swiss franc, yen. gold is catching a bid. in terms of safe haven demand we see the swiss franc burnishing credentials as a safe haven of choice, rising against the euro and greenback when it seems like monetary policy concerns are being eclipsed by geopolitics tensions. bitcoin slumping today and this asset class in the past has been touted as a hedge against geopolitical risk. that argument in doubt today for the bot because i want to show you how risk aversion is coming into across assets and we see that showing up in the taiwan
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and japan stop tickets. negative msci asia pacific in the lowest level since february and asian currencies under pressure renewed concerns amid the surge in oil prices, brent moving past the $90 handle at one point creeping below it at the moment has. >> for more on crude markets, stephen joins us now. $100 oil again. >> we are not quite there yet. oil prices are volatile this morning. they jumped above $90 brent, a 3% to 4% increase but they are coming back down below $90 again . the market will be volatile as they digest what happened with
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the response from israel. there are reports that iran has shut down some of the drones and their nuclear sites were not hit. if they were it would show another ratcheting up of tension between israel and iran, with the conflict deeper in the middle east but we are not seeing that at the moment. the market is seeing if the situation escalates to another level and with prices coming down for oil it does -- the market seems to be taking a small sigh of relief but everyone waits to see what will happen next. one focus point will be what happens in the strait of hormuz. it is unlikely right now that key waterway on the border with iran could be shut but it is a waterway that has 30% of global
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oil trade and if it were to close or supplies were disrupted going through it would mean a huge ratcheting up of pressure and prices would spike but that is a remote scenario but the worst case scenario that the market is anxious about but it does seem they are watching tension in the middle east. >> overall how are we looking at oil markets tightening? >> if you look at where we are, beyond the conflict in the middle east we are in a tighter market than months back. some analysts say we are in a deficit. could we rise towards $100? goldman this morning said $90 brent is the ceiling now but it depends on who you ask.
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everyone has a different look at it. opec-plus has tighten the market by cutting barrels from the market through the next few months to the end of the second quarter. how they will respond in the third and fourth quarter is something that is closely watched because they could add supply and help add a cushion to where we are so certainly there are fundamentals backing up oils move higher in the last few months since the start of the year as we have seen oil check toward the $100 level but speaking about today it is clearly driven by folks watching the retaliation on iran and digesting this to see what happens next, if iran will respond again or if this is the end of it. haslinda: thank you for that. let's get more perspective.
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how are you reading the resurgence into risk in the middle east? >> we have to separate the short-term political risk from fundamentals. fundamentals are still very strong. if there was no political risk added, the prices would rise to $98, maybe $100 the second half of the year and then opec-plus has to decide to wait. if they do not put volume in the price will hit $100 a bet barrel. political risk, there is no big political risk to the market because opec was has 6 million barrels spare capacity. overnight they can increase volume and make up any difference. >> summer looking at the strait
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of hormuz. how do you assess the risk of a closure? >> this is a nonsense question. people think the strait of hormuz is a one-way street where only oil those out. 80% of the food in iran comes in through the strait of hormuz. so it might be something for a few days as a show of force but it cannot be closed because the iranians population will starve without that strait of hormuz. >> how would it affect the markets if it happened? >> if it happened it could increase the price by $30 a barrel but there is a lot in spare capacity. in that time we need all sanctions against russia would have to be suspended. [indiscernible]
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there are venezuela -- there is venezuela and a lot of other people but the possibility is one in 10,000. >> how you assess a tightening market and demand from china with china's economy recovering and they may demand more oil on the back of that. >> the oil demand grew much more last year. chinese oil demand will peak by 2027. it's a big change in the global market because the world has been waiting for china to come in and rescue the market whenever there is an issue. that rule will cease. the chinese for the last 20 years have controlled the global demand but had massive consumption.
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[indiscernible] will be closed. >> u.s. house of representatives is looking at legislation banning china from buying arabian oil. what impact would that have? >> chinese statistics show that zero arabian oil is imported. they import from malaysia. but that is bigger than malaysian production. it is being renamed but it is from iran and the biden administration has turned a blind eye. >> in terms of the u.s. re-imposing sanctions and restrictions on venezuela, without have a major impact? >> venezuelan oil industry was destroyed by chavez and maduro's
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and is irrelevant. it is a matter of a couple of hundred. >> so it would not cause prices to hike. >> iran oil production is almost near capacity so either we wait for trump to come in and imposed sanctions he put in place or by some dramatic change that u.s. changes policy the iranian production would go down by a million barrels per day. >> opec-plus has extended production. how much longer will that persist given that saudi arabia needs oil at $100 a barrel to balance the budget? >> i do not believe in the numbers from saudi's so much. they manage their system well. basically in the middle east, the more money you have, the
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more money you spend. if you are arrested you be more careful. to say they need $100 moral, everyone needs more money but they can manage with far less and there -- the country has dramatically changed so there is more flexibility there than the financial analyst give credit to. >> you have great insights into the energy space in market. is there something the rest of the world is not understanding when it comes to the energy market? >> the fundamentals and prices are disconnected. why does price go to $83? why is it there? the fundamentals are so strong. we are going to go higher prices and if they have strong -- some
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minor change because of geopolitics it will be separated by itself. the key thing to look for is [indiscernible] in the third or fourth quarter of the year, and i think they will do it because if they don't do it prices will go above 100 dollars. >> keep watching opec-plus. coming up, the world's biggest election gets underway in india. we get insights on what is at stake in the six week voting exercise. keep it here with us. this is bloomberg. ♪
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india starts trading in two minutes and futures point to a lower open. watch oil prices as one market that imports most of its oil needs oil of course trading above the $90 a barrel reversing losses today jumping more than 3% again all the benchmarks in india pointing to a lower open and we are keeping watch and brent crude on the back of the emphasis falling 2.4 percent in premarket trading. let's go back to india for the start of the elections. and tensions in the middle east are setting oil prices higher. will this be a challenge for the economy? >> undoubtably they will be. india is a very large importer of crude oil and we have seen the various tactics the country had to deploy to meet the oil
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requirements when a war broke out -- the ukraine war broke out and sanctions were imposed on russia. as election get underway there are six more faces this will go on until june 1 it is very difficult to tell but let me put it this way. the more fragile the world looks to indian voters, the more they will seek a strong leader. and they know those are quality attributes they have identified with prime minister modi. >> india has relations with both iran and israeli. how might this play out in terms of thinking in india? >> in the past week they have called for de-escalation of the crisis in the middle east after seeing the iran strikes. unfortunately i have not been
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able to find out what the government's comments are this morning because i have been [indiscernible] but i'm sure they will look at the situation and that geopolitical fallout and economic fallout in india and i will say quickly we may not see any immediate transmission of higher oil prices to citizens because indian government oil companies tend to not move prices higher if they feel the mood is not welcoming. it is the most diplomatically i can put it. so oil will not translate into a more expensive commodity in india in the next few weeks but that depends on if it stays below or above $100. >> thank you so much for that. a headline suggesting iran
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officials say the strike hit their military airbase and this is as reported by the new york times saying iran officials have hit military airbase near isfahan. let's find out what this could mean for india's foreign policy. our next guest joins us from new delhi. put this in perspective for us. middle east conflict and what it might mean for india. >> as you said, israel is a close partner of india. iran is a traditional partner of india. we no longer buy oil from iran as a result of the sanctions but any instability in that part of the world impacts india because
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we have 9 million indians living and working in the goals -- gulf . that by itself makes any geopolitical tension become a source of political and economic tension in india. india has invested deeply in its foreign policy, particularly with saudi arabia, israel, and the uae. all of these nations right now will be focusing or are focusing on the strikes and we have seen the results of the strikes this morning. all of these will impact how india sees the region because instability is not something india is very comfortable with. after the israel strikes -- after the iran strikes on israel
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last weekend, iran seized a merchant ship. this has been held hostage by iran for the last week. they released one female crew member this morning but it adds to india's troubles because indians have had to be evacuated by trouble spots all over the world. >> so you would say india has adopted the right foreign policy in the middle east to ensure supplies? >> oil supplies are a factor of the market. we buy oil from saudi arabia, russia, these are the top oil
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sources. i do not think any of them would be affected by what is happening right now. yes they are connected issues in the u.s. has become one of our biggest sources of natural gas as well. that conductivity in the region will have an impact. we have been through the russia-ukraine war and indian government has kept prices stable. energy price stability is vital for the growth of the indian economy and we will see more of the intervention by what is coming in as we go along. >> when it comes to relations between india and the u.s., how might it deep in with a third
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term of a modi government? >> i think there is a degree of comfort between india and the u.s. today that has not been there before, largely because of the emphasis on the u.s. relationship by the modi government for the past decade. to be fair to the u.s., a reciprocal emphasis on nations with india by separate u.s. administrations, i think that will continue. >> to interrupt you, new york times saying the israel defense officials has said the military has struck iran, new york times saying israel defense officials have said the military did to strike iran and new york times saying earlier as well the same
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thing and we will continue to bring you those headlines from the new york times as we get them. in terms of foreign relations, china possibly is the toughest one. how might a third modi term defined those relations with china? >> is indeed the most difficult relationship. there are 100 thousand soldiers troops on either side in a face-to-face situation. in a very inhospitable part of the world. that's been the case for the last four years. india has taken some steps to decouple their economy from china, particularly in the area
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of investments by china in the technology sector and financial sector. china has not been a big source in india because of security concerns but tiktok and onwards there has been a determined move to separate china from india. >> we have to leave it there, thank you so much for your thoughts today. plenty more ahead. this is bloomberg.
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>> new york times reporting that israel defense officials say they have stroke iran. vonnie quinn is here to take us through the latest from dubai. >> two officials have confirmed to us that there was a strike israel launched a retaliatory strike on iran after their news agency reported an explosion was heard in the city of isfahan where there is a nuclear tech center and we have learned that site is safe, that is a quote from iran state tv. this has been off the boil a
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little bit and gold despite below $2400 an ounce but we see a flight to safety in treasuries in the dollar and we will follow all of this all these details as they come out of or is it is a wood situation but it appears that ron is downplaying it to an extent and television media suggesting things are continuing as normal and we know that isfahan was -- >> we have to leave it there. we will take you through the markets. risk aversion. havens getting bid up. that is it from bloomberg markets: asia. this is bloomberg. ♪ o coming in.. big orders!s starting a business is never easy, but starting it eight months pregnant.. that's a different story. i couldn't slow down.
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